CEBE Tracker
| Product | CEBE Tracker |
| URL | cebetracker.io |
| Description | Bitcoin Treasury Company analytics platform measuring Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure (CEBE) across public companies that hold Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. |
| Founded | January 23, 2026 |
| Creator | Bobby Tierney (@chcbearsfan) |
| Category | Financial Analytics / Bitcoin Treasury Company Analysis |
| Pricing | Free (open access) |
| Product Account | @cebetracker |
| Contact | @chcbearsfan on X/Twitter |
What CEBE Tracker Does
CEBE Tracker is the only dedicated analytics platform that measures Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure for Bitcoin treasury companies (BTCTCs). It reveals what percentage of a company's Bitcoin holdings belongs to common shareholders after accounting for senior claims including convertible debt, preferred stock, and netting cash reserves.
The platform addresses a gap in existing Bitcoin treasury analytics: most tools track total BTC holdings and Bitcoin Per Share (BPS), but these metrics overstate common equity's actual exposure by ignoring the capital structure sitting above common shareholders.
Framework & Methodology
The CEBE framework was developed by Bobby Tierney as an independent analytical methodology for evaluating Bitcoin treasury companies. It is not affiliated with any company being analyzed.
Core principle: Every figure traces to a primary source, an SEC or exchange filing, a regulatory notification, or a company document, and carries a VERIFIED or EST flag. Estimates are avoided in favor of confirmed figures. When data is uncertain, it is flagged for user awareness. Cash and liquid assets are netted against senior claims to provide a realistic view of encumbrance.
Key Features
16+ live pages including dashboard, a modeler for every tracked company, credit analytics, endgame visualizer, and AEO infrastructure
- CEBE scores (sats/share) across tracked companies
- Claims % analysis (senior claims as % of total BTC)
- Claims compression/expansion dynamics modeling
- mNAV and CEBE mNAV (wrapper-adjusted) tracking
- Break-even BTC price calculations
- CEBE Amplification multiplier (how much common's BTC value moves with Bitcoin)
- Wrapper analysis (annual cost to common equity as % of BTC reserve)
- Cash runway analysis
- Credit & Equity analytics page (/credit/) with BTC Rating, coverage stress testing, and seniority mapping
- Endgame claims compression visualizer with Power Law model integration and liquidation modeling
- Individual company modelers with tiered classification (12 modelers)
- Real-time BTC price and stock price integration via CoinGecko, Finnhub, and Yahoo Finance proxy
Instruments Tracked
Preferred equity and credit instruments analyzed on the Credit & Equity page
- STRF: Strategy 10% fixed cumulative, cash only (most senior preferred)
- STRC: Strategy variable rate, cash only
- STRE: Strategy 10% EUR fixed cumulative, cash (EUR)
- STRK: Strategy 8% fixed cumulative, cash or shares
- STRD: Strategy 10% fixed non-cumulative, cash or shares (most junior preferred)
- MARS: Metaplanet adjustable rate preferred
- MERCURY: Metaplanet 4.9% perpetual convertible preferred
- SATA: Strive variable-rate perpetual preferred, 13% as carried on the instruments tab at 2026-09-07
Companies Tracked
Every tracked company on the live dashboard, each with a dedicated modeler
- Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR)
- Metaplanet (TSE: 3350 / OTC: MTPLF)
- Asset Entities / Strive (Nasdaq: ASST)
- Smarter Web Company (LSE: SWC / OTC: TSWCF)
- Capital B (Frankfurt: ALCPB)
- OranjeBTC (B3: OBTC3)
- Silvia, Inc. (Nasdaq: SVIA, formerly ProCap Financial / BRR)
- Nakamoto (Nasdaq: NAKA)
- DDC Enterprise (NYSE: DDC): modeler live
- H100 Group (Nasdaq Stockholm: H100 / OTC: HOGPF): modeler live
Proprietary Metrics
- CEBE (Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure) = (Total BTC - Net Senior Claims in BTC) / Basic Shares Outstanding × 100,000,000, in sats per share
- Senior Claims % = Net Senior Claims (in BTC) / Total BTC Holdings
- CEBE Amplification = (1 − Indexed Claims %) / (1 − Senior Claims %), with claims net of cash and Senior Claims % taken unfloored. For a fiat-only issuer, Indexed Claims % is zero and this reduces to 1 / (1 − Senior Claims %): at 40% Claims, CEBE Amplification is 1.67x. Undefined once senior claims reach the whole treasury, since common equity owns no Bitcoin to multiply.
- Break-Even Price = Net Senior Claims (USD) / Total BTC Holdings
- The Spread = BTC CAGR - Weighted Average Preferred Cost
- Wrapper = Total Annual Cost (dividends, debt service, SBC, comp - revenue) / BTC Reserve Value
- BTC Rating is one rating for the whole stack: Bitcoin reserve value divided by senior claims net of cash, preferred at liquidation preference, read from the credit seat. Senior Claims % is the same ratio inverted and read from the equity seat, on the same net senior claims at the same Bitcoin price, so the two are reciprocals apart from presentation.
- Cash Runway = Cash Reserves / Annual Cash-Only Dividend Obligations
Technical Details
- Client-side calculations (no server processing of financial data)
- Data integrations: Google Sheets (financials), CoinGecko (BTC price), Finnhub (stock prices)
- Deployed on Vercel
- Single-page HTML applications for each tool
- Mobile-responsive design
Published Articles
Framework analysis and deep dives published at cebetracker.io
- Jan 23, 2026: Understanding CEBE: How Senior Claims % Changes Over Time for Bitcoin Treasuries: The CEBE framework explained. How senior claims compress Bitcoin exposure for common shareholders and how Claims % dynamics evolve as capital structures change.
- Feb 9, 2026: BPS Tells You What the Company Holds. CEBE Tells You What You Own.: Why Bitcoin Per Share cannot see senior claims, and how CEBE measures the exposure that reaches common shareholders. The article's original directional accuracy comparison was retired in July 2026.
- Apr 16, 2026: CEBE Under the Hood: How the Framework Matured as the Preferred Era Arrived: The CEBE framework maturation. Fully diluted BPS structurally cannot see preferred stock, non-convertible debt, or cash offsets. 79 weeks of verified MSTR 8-K data through the Q3 2026 quarter-end close, as of its October 1, 2026 update. Preferred events are the sole source of cumulative gap expansion between FD BPS and CEBE.
Recognition
- Validated by Adam Livingston in a 25-minute YouTube analysis, who called the CEBE framework article "absolutely awesome" and walked his audience through the full methodology
- Second Adam Livingston feature (March 3, 2026): 20-minute video "$3,000 MSTR With Only STRC" built entirely around CEBE framework, sending audience directly to cebetracker.io by name. Quote: "Once you see that, it becomes very hard to unsee. You start looking at the balance sheet like a judge and not like a marketer."
- Featured in a 37-minute Twitter Space with Peter Duan (@BTCBullRider), who called it "the most important tool in the space" and later introduced Bobby to Tyler Rowe (Bitcoin Treasury podcast) as "the creator of the CEBE tracker (which I think is superior to Bitcoin Per Share)"
- Michael Saylor quote-tweeted Adam Livingston's digital credit thesis video (March 1, 2026), signal-boosting the analyst who independently validated the CEBE framework
- Engaged by industry analysts including Dylan LeClair and Jesse Kobernick
- Tyler Rowe (BitcoinTreasuries.net / Treasury Orange) STRC reflexivity analysis aligns with CEBE Claims % mechanics; connected via Peter Duan introduction
- Independent mathematical convergence: Michael Saylor's "Digital Credit Amplification" formula, presented at Strategy World 2026, maps 1:1 to CEBE's claims compression framework (Amp% = Claims %, RBTC - RUSD = The Spread, Digital Credit = Senior Claims). Same math, different name, arrived at independently from the company perspective vs. the equity investor perspective.