Claims Dashboard
Two Staked Claims
Non-event weeks compress the gap on average. Preferred events are the sole source of cumulative gap expansion between FD BPS and CEBE. Event weeks account for 130% of total normalized expansion; the excess over 100% reflects non-event compression that event weeks must overcome to produce net growth. The finding holds at every materiality threshold tested.
Issuance size predicts gap expansion with near-perfect correlation. The relationship is mechanical: larger preferred face directly increases net senior claims in BTC terms, which widens the gap proportionally. The top 5 gap expansion weeks are the top 5 issuance weeks in exact order. This is not a statistical pattern. It is arithmetic.
62 Weeks of Verified 8-K Data
The Gap
Solid line: Raw gap (as traded) | Dashed line: Normalized ($77,500 BTC) | Raw baseline: 4,533 sats → Terminal: 58,911 sats | Norm baseline: 14,155 sats → Terminal: 58,542 sats | Orange dots = preferred-event weeks
62 Rows / All VERIFIED from SEC 8-K Filings
Transaction Ledger
| WEEK | BTC ACQUIRED | PREF ISSUED | EVENT | DELTA G (NORM) | CUM GAP (RAW) | QUALITY |
|---|
How It Works
Methodology
The gap measures the per-share difference between FD BPS and CEBE in satoshis. FD BPS (Fully Diluted Bitcoin Per Share) divides total BTC holdings by the fully diluted share count, treating all Bitcoin as belonging to common equity. CEBE subtracts net senior claims (preferred face plus debt minus cash, all converted to BTC at the prevailing reference price) before dividing by basic shares. The gap is the distance between the market convention and the internally consistent measure, the BTC per share that FD BPS attributes to common shareholders while the standing waterfall assigns it to preferred stockholders and debt holders. At the terminal snapshot (June 1, 2026), this gap is 58,911 sats, equivalent to $45 per share at $77,135 BTC, or $16.0 billion across 352.6 million basic shares outstanding.
Event weeks are defined as weeks in which a new preferred series debuted (IPO) or an existing series expanded through ATM activity exceeding 0.5% of total preferred face outstanding at the start of that week. Rate modifications are excluded because they affect wrapper cost, not claims size. The gap measures claims size. This 0.5% threshold was tested alongside any-amount (Pass 1) and 1.0% (Pass 3) thresholds; the binary finding holds at all three passes. Pass 1 yields 42 event weeks, Pass 2 yields 34, Pass 3 yields 24, and the non-event mean is negative and event share exceeds 100% in every case. A critic cannot argue the threshold was cherry-picked.
Event weeks produced 130% of total normalized gap expansion. Non-event weeks compressed by 30%, netting to 100%. These figures are not independent: the 135% gross / -35% compression framing from earlier in this document reflects the dataset at publication; the current figures update as new data arrives. The direction is stable: non-event compression is real and consistent, and event weeks must overcome it to produce net expansion.
The binary finding is the primary claim because it is threshold-insensitive and requires no distributional assumptions about the issuance size variable. The Pearson correlation (r = 0.9443) quantifies the dose-response relationship but is a secondary claim, with a threshold set at 0.85 to account for reduced variance when issuance concentrates in a single series. The gap series joins weekly data from verified 8-K filings with quarterly debt and cash values from 10-Q and 10-K balance sheets via a step function, not interpolation. The step function reflects when these values are actually reported. Every row traces to a specific SEC EDGAR filing path. The chart shows both the raw gap series (at weekly 8-K market prices) and the normalized series ($77,500 fixed). The table's delta_g values correspond to the normalized line. The two converge at the terminal because the normalization price is near the April 20 market price.