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Falsifiable Claim · Evidence Tracker · Live Data

The Preferred Era Prediction

MSTR preferred-event-week ratio must hold above 5x at Q2 and Q3 2026 checkpoints.

Read the maturation article that stakes this claim →
Current State
Current Ratio
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Current state of the claim.
Cumulative Gap
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Total divergence since STRK debut.
Weeks of Data
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From STRK debut to latest snapshot.
ASST / Strive (dev mode)
Ratio
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Cumulative Gap
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Weeks of Data
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MTPLF / Metaplanet (dev mode)
Ratio
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Cumulative Gap
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Weeks of Data
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Falsifiability Checkpoints
Q2 2026 Checkpoint
June 30, 2026
PENDING
Q3 2026 Checkpoint
September 30, 2026
PENDING
Preferred-Event-Week Ratio Over Time
Rolling ratio -- cumulative from STRK debut through each week
MSTR
5x threshold
Q2 / Q3 checkpoints
Preferred Event Timeline
MSTR preferred events
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Methodology

What this predicts: The ratio of week-over-week gap expansion on preferred-event weeks to non-event weeks remains above 5x through Q2 and Q3 2026 MSTR checkpoints.

What this doesn't predict: Stock price movement, mNAV levels, BTC price trajectory, or the same pattern at other BTCTCs. ASST and MTPLF data is being collected but is not yet part of the public stake.

See /cebe for the framework case. See /valuation for the valuation methodology. See /preferred-era for the article that stakes this claim.

Validation datasets: ASST (SATA preferred era) and MTPLF (MERCURY preferred era) shown for internal inspection. Publication pending evaluation of whether these datasets confirm, contradict, or refine the MSTR prediction.