Claims Dashboard
Two Staked Claims
Non-event weeks compress the gap on average. Preferred events are the sole source of cumulative gap expansion between FD BPS and CEBE. Event weeks account for 135% of total normalized expansion; the excess over 100% reflects non-event compression that event weeks must overcome to produce net growth. The finding holds at every materiality threshold tested.
Issuance size predicts gap expansion with near-perfect correlation. The relationship is mechanical: larger preferred face directly increases net senior claims in BTC terms, which widens the gap proportionally. The top 5 gap expansion weeks are the top 5 issuance weeks in exact order. This is not a statistical pattern -- it is arithmetic.
58 Weeks of Verified 8-K Data
The Gap
Solid line: Raw gap (as traded) | Dashed line: Normalized ($77,500 BTC) | Raw baseline: 4,533 sats → Terminal: 51,340 sats | Norm baseline: 14,155 sats → Terminal: 51,712 sats | Orange dots = preferred-event weeks
58 Rows -- All VERIFIED from SEC 8-K Filings
Transaction Ledger
| WEEK | BTC ACQUIRED | PREF ISSUED | EVENT | DELTA G (NORM) | CUM GAP (RAW) | QUALITY |
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How It Works
Methodology
The gap measures the per-share difference between FD BPS and CEBE in satoshis. FD BPS (Fully Diluted Bitcoin Per Share) divides total BTC holdings by the fully diluted share count, treating all Bitcoin as belonging to common equity. CEBE subtracts net senior claims -- preferred face plus debt minus cash, all converted to BTC at the prevailing reference price -- before dividing by basic shares. The gap quantifies the overstatement: how much BTC per share FD BPS attributes to common shareholders that actually belongs to preferred stockholders and debt holders. At the terminal snapshot (April 27, 2026), this gap is 51,340 sats, equivalent to $40 per share at $77,906 BTC, or $14.0 billion across 350.8 million basic shares outstanding.
Event weeks are defined as weeks in which a new preferred series debuted (IPO) or an existing series expanded through ATM activity exceeding 0.5% of total preferred face outstanding at the start of that week. Rate modifications are excluded because they affect wrapper cost, not claims size. The gap measures claims size. This 0.5% threshold was tested alongside any-amount (Pass 1) and 1.0% (Pass 3) thresholds; the binary finding holds at all three passes. Pass 1 yields 42 event weeks, Pass 2 yields 33, Pass 3 yields 24 -- the non-event mean is negative and event share exceeds 100% in every case. A critic cannot argue the threshold was cherry-picked.
The binary finding is the primary claim because it is threshold-insensitive and requires no distributional assumptions about the issuance size variable. The Pearson correlation (r = 0.9435) quantifies the dose-response relationship but is a secondary claim, with a threshold set at 0.85 to account for reduced variance when issuance concentrates in a single series. The gap series joins weekly data from verified 8-K filings with quarterly debt and cash values from 10-Q and 10-K balance sheets via a step function -- not interpolation. The step function reflects when these values are actually reported. Every row traces to a specific SEC EDGAR filing path. The chart shows both the raw gap series (at weekly 8-K market prices) and the normalized series ($77,500 fixed). The table's delta_g values correspond to the normalized line. The two converge at the terminal because the normalization price is near the April 20 market price.