https://cebetracker.io/insights/ In-depth analysis and research on Bitcoin treasury strategies, the CEBE framework, and company dynamics. en-us bobby.tierney@gmail.com (Bobby Tierney) bobby.tierney@gmail.com (Bobby Tierney) Sun, 01 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT scripts/generate-machine-surfaces.mjs https://cebetracker.io/insights/the-receipt/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/the-receipt/ How CEBE became anything at all. The 2025 numbers, locked and cited. Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT Editorial https://cebetracker.io/insights/the-shares-that-are-not-in-the-number/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/the-shares-that-are-not-in-the-number/ The number was right. The number was not enough. What a fleet census found standing outside every count. Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT Analysis https://cebetracker.io/insights/accretion-threshold/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/accretion-threshold/ Equity issuance adds CEBE per share only above a line the senior stack sets: in gross mNAV units, 1 minus Claims %, not 1.0. Plotted for MSTR at every snapshot. Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT Analysis https://cebetracker.io/the-net-effect/ https://cebetracker.io/the-net-effect/ Two constructions, printed the same day by different parties, return the same number. Where Strategy's net-of-claims metrics and CEBE agree, part, and why. Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT Analysis https://cebetracker.io/insights/procap-finish-the-math/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/procap-finish-the-math/ ProCap retired 57% of its debt and its net claims rose. A collateral switch, a wrapper fee twenty times its first impression, and a flywheel running in reverse. Mon, 29 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Deep Dive https://cebetracker.io/insights/the-question-they-couldnt-answer/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/the-question-they-couldnt-answer/ mNAV's builders concede it has no single answer, and a chief executive was mocked for asking. The framework that answers it. Part 3 of The Measuring Problem. Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Analysis https://cebetracker.io/insights/naka-finish-the-math/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/naka-finish-the-math/ Fully diluted BPS fell 44% in a quarter; CEBE fell 35%. No Bitcoin added, 284 coins sold, one Kraken loan with 4,405 BTC pledged. What common shareholders own. Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT Deep Dive https://cebetracker.io/insights/strive-finish-the-math/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/strive-finish-the-math/ FD BPS grew 56%. CEBE declined 0.7%. Eleven snapshots, one band, three scenarios that break it. What common owns inside Strive's perpetual preferred structure. Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Deep Dive https://cebetracker.io/insights/why-we-tolerate-contradiction/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/why-we-tolerate-contradiction/ Why Bitcoiners tolerate three incompatible metrics: the captured insider, the TradFi inheritance, and what CEBE fixes. Part 2 of The Measuring Problem. Fri, 22 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Analysis https://cebetracker.io/insights/the-measuring-problem/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/the-measuring-problem/ Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies report three incompatible metrics for one balance sheet, and the cost to holders. Strategy, Metaplanet, Smarter Web, Capital B. Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Analysis https://cebetracker.io/insights/capitalb-finish-the-math/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/capitalb-finish-the-math/ Capital B is the only BTCTC whose Senior Claims % does not compress with BTC price. Watermill and flywheel, 553 days above 1.0x NAV, +113% CEBE since Q2 2025. Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Deep Dive https://cebetracker.io/insights/h100-finish-the-math/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/h100-finish-the-math/ Zero interest. A 2030 binary that converts above $72K BTC. A Bitminter founder contributing 2,450 old Bitcoin for 70% of the company. Read the SPA first. Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Deep Dive https://cebetracker.io/insights/engine-state/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/engine-state/ Is each BTCTC's accumulation engine accelerating, stable or decaying? Engine State tracks its condition: where each one is and which way it is heading. Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT Analysis https://cebetracker.io/preferred-era/ https://cebetracker.io/preferred-era/ FD BPS cannot see preferred stock or debt. 79 weeks of MSTR 8-K data show a 30,583 sat normalized gap from preferred events. Both claims held at Q2 and Q3 2026. Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Deep Dive https://cebetracker.io/insights/metaplanet-finish-the-math/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/metaplanet-finish-the-math/ Three phases, dual-currency double compression, a negative wrapper, and the quarter BPS rose while CEBE fell. What common owns in Japan's Bitcoin institution. Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Deep Dive https://cebetracker.io/insights/swc-finish-the-math/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/swc-finish-the-math/ What did it cost to build a Bitcoin treasury in less than a year? A CEBE deep dive into SWC's capital structure, dilution, and what common shareholders own. Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT Deep Dive https://cebetracker.io/learn/live/ https://cebetracker.io/learn/live/ Six episodes. Four differentiators. CEBE, Senior Claims %, Claims Compression, CEBE mNAV. Live data, real math. No hand-waving. Sat, 28 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT Educational Series https://cebetracker.io/insights/strc-preferred-cost/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/strc-preferred-cost/ The preferred stack everyone's celebrating has a price tag. BPS can't see it. CEBE can. An analysis by Bobby Tierney. Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT Analysis https://cebetracker.io/insights/same-companies/ https://cebetracker.io/insights/same-companies/ Summer 2025 was euphoria. March 2026 is fear. Eight balance sheets. Five got stronger. Three didn't. An analysis by Bobby Tierney. Sun, 15 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT Sector Report https://cebetracker.io/cebe/ https://cebetracker.io/cebe/ CEBE, Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure, is the Bitcoin each common share owns after senior claims, created by Bobby Tierney (@chcbearsfan) in January 2026. Sun, 01 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT Framework https://cebetracker.io/framework/ https://cebetracker.io/framework/ CEBE measures the Bitcoin exposure available to common shareholders after accounting for senior claims. The analytical framework that reveals what BPS ignores. Fri, 23 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT Framework