BPS tells you what the company holds. CEBE tells you what you own.
Published February 1, 2026
CEBE, Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure, is the Bitcoin each common share owns after senior claims, a measure created by Bobby Tierney (@chcbearsfan) in January 2026.
Where CEBE has appeared outside this site, dated and sourced: the CEBE Record.
CEBE = (Total BTC − Net Senior Claims in BTC) / Basic Shares Outstanding × 100,000,000, in sats per share. Methodology
BPS was the right metric when Strategy had 38,250 BTC and zero debt. That was 2020. Today there's $17.4 billion in senior claims. BPS pretends they don't exist. CEBE doesn't.
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BPS (sats/share)
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CEBE (sats/share)
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Claims %
As of · BTC · Strategy (MSTR)
Takeaways
CEBE, Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure, is the Bitcoin each common share owns after senior claims.
CEBE = (Total BTC − Net Senior Claims in BTC) / Basic Shares Outstanding × 100,000,000, in sats per share.
BPS Yield tracks every coin the company holds, and CEBE Yield tracks what is left for common shareholders after senior claims.
The zero line is the BTC price where senior claims consume the entire treasury and common equity hits $0.
CEBE does not price an option; it is the standing-state waterfall, the amount senior claimants must legally receive before common receives anything.
For anyone who holds the stock and wants to know the math.
The CEBE framework has matured significantly since this article was written. As MSTR's preferred era ramped (STRC alone now exceeds STRK + STRF + STRD + STRE combined), the comparison standard has evolved from basic BPS to FD BPS, and the framework's core measurement has shifted from directional accuracy to cumulative preferred-driven gap. The structural analyses on this page remain valid; the statistical comparison section is being refreshed. Read the maturation piece: CEBE Under the Hood.
Update: July 1, 2026. The remaining directional accuracy comparison (the 50% and 68% figures, the era subsets, and the quarter table) has been removed rather than refreshed. CEBE Yield contains the period BTC price change by construction, so a directional accuracy comparison against BPS Yield is not informative. The structural sections on this page are unchanged.
01
What BPS Yield cannot see
BPS Yield (Strategy's official KPI) tracks every coin the company holds. CEBE Yield tracks what is left for common shareholders after senior claims. When the capital structure moves, the two can tell different stories about the same quarter.
Why the gap? BPS measures all Bitcoin per share but ignores $17.4B in claims that sit ahead of you. When BTC falls and those claims grow in BTC terms, BPS can still show growth while your actual equity shrinks. CEBE accounts for both sides in the same unit. The more senior claims there are, the more BPS and reality diverge, and the more CEBE matters.
Q4 2022. BPS Yield showed +1.1%. Shareholders lost 33.3%. CEBE printed −100%. Senior claims exceeded the BTC stack at spot, so measured common exposure was zero. The equity's remaining market value was time value, which CEBE does not measure and does not claim to measure. Near the zero line, CEBE reads moneyness, not market value.
02
Who gets paid first?
As of 2026-07-26, Strategy's 843,775 BTC secure $6.75B in convertible debt and $15.43B in preferred stock before common shareholders see a single sat. Drag the slider to see how much of the treasury belongs to you at any BTC price.
$66,000
$10,000$250,000
cebetracker.io
The zero line is $23,270. Below that price, converts and preferred consume the entire treasury. Common equity = $0. Above it, every dollar of BTC appreciation flows disproportionately to common. That's the embedded leverage. BPS hides it. CEBE shows it.
03
The price of ruin keeps climbing
The "zero line" is the BTC price where senior claims consume the entire treasury and common equity hits $0. This doesn't mean insolvency. Strategy's debt is no-call and can't force liquidation. But it's the price where CEBE = 0 and your equity is pure option premium.
cebetracker.io
2020 Zero Line$9,224
Current Zero Line$23,270
Increase2.5×
Current Cushion64.7%
Converts heal. Preferreds don't. If MSTR recovers above $143.25, the $1.7B 2027 notes convert to equity and the zero line drops to $20,887. But the preferred stock never converts. Every new preferred issuance permanently raises the floor. BPS can't show you this. CEBE does.
04
Your equity behaves like a call option
The equity-as-call intuition traces to Robert Merton, who showed in 1974 that the equity of a firm with a single tranche of zero-coupon debt behaves like a call option on the firm's assets. CEBE borrows the intuition, not the model. Multiple tranches, coupons, and perpetual preferreds with no maturity violate the Merton assumptions, so CEBE does not price an option. It is the standing-state waterfall, the amount senior claimants must legally receive before common receives anything. The gap between MSTR's market price and CEBE, charted below as time value, is the premium the market pays above that standing state.
cebetracker.io
Q4 2025 Time Value
7.9%
Maximum pessimism. Market priced MSTR barely above its CEBE value.
22-Quarter Average
55%
Normal time value premium for the option on 780,897 BTC.
7.9% time value means the market priced zero premium for Strategy's ability to accumulate BTC, its no-call debt structure, or the lack of any maturity wall. Every prior time value collapse was followed by a recovery.
05
The purchases bears call "dilutive" aren't always dilutive
When Strategy issues shares to buy BTC, BPS and CEBE set different bars for accretion. BPS demands new shares bring in more sats than existing BPS. CEBE only requires they exceed existing CEBE, a lower bar by exactly the phantom dollar ($49.94/share). The gap creates a split zone where purchases are BPS-dilutive but CEBE-accretive.
The Split Zone
BTC PRICE$66,000
$30,000$200,000
MSTR
BOTH DILUTIVESPLIT ZONEBOTH ACCRETIVE
CEBE $92
BPS $142
cebetracker.io
Recent Purchases: BPS vs CEBE Verdict
Week
BTC
Sats/New Share
BPS Says
CEBE Says
Dec 8-14 '25
10,645
197,130
✗ Dilutive
✓ Accretive
Jan 5-11 '26
13,627
189,264
✗ Dilutive
✓ Accretive
Jan 12-19 '26
22,305
214,471
✗ Dilutive
✓ Accretive
Jan 20-25 '26
2,932
186,752
✗ Dilutive
✓ Accretive
Jan 27-Feb 1 '26
855
150,000
✗ Dilutive
✗ Dilutive
4 of 5 recent purchases that BPS called "dilutive" were actually CEBE-accretive. Wrong benchmark.
cebetracker.io
Phantom dilution is phantom growth in reverse. BPS misreads the upside (quarters where BPS grew while CEBE contracted) and misreads the downside (purchases it called "dilutive" that grew common equity). Same root cause: ignoring senior claims.
06
Know what you own
Drag the slider. Watch the numbers. Every metric updates in real time.
$66,000
$10,000$500,000
TREASURY ALLOCATION
■ Converts■ Preferred■ Common
cebetracker.io
If you hold the stock, you should know the math. That's what CEBE is for.