Same Companies. Different Math. Lower Prices.

Why the Scoreboard Looks Wrong

In June 2025, the Bitcoin-treasury companies were all running hot. The narrative was clean: companies with BTC on the balance sheet outperform. The chart went up and to the right. Everyone felt smart.

Nine months later, the same companies have worse BPS and lower share prices. The Bitcoin price went up 40%, but these stocks didn't follow. Something changed. Or did it?

The answer is: both changed. The companies got materially stronger on most metrics. But the metrics themselves got worse. That's the CEBE insight.

When you normalize all eight companies to the same Bitcoin price ($72K) and compare their CEBE and drag from Summer 2025 to Q1 2026, five improved their capital structure. Three degraded it. But the stock market treated all of them the same: risk off.

The Scorecard

Here's what happened to the eight major Bitcoin-treasury companies over the period. Both columns are calculated at $72K BTC. The only variable that changed is what management did: accumulated BTC, restructured debt, built cash, managed dilution. Sorted by normalized CEBE change.

The clear separation: the top five companies made capital structure decisions that strengthened their common equity position. The bottom three either stalled or degraded.

What Separates the Top from the Bottom

Metaplanet (the leader): 163% BTC accumulation, but only 78% share dilution. That's the equation for capital structure strength. They're converting balance sheet claims into common equity claims faster than they're issuing shares. CEBE pulls away from drag.

H100 Holdings: Converted $2.8B in convertible bonds to common equity. That removed senior claims and replaced them with common claims. Drag fell from 28.4 percentage points to 3.5 points. It's the biggest capital structure shift in the peer set.

Capital B: Similar story: $15M in OCA conversions over the period pulled senior debt off the balance sheet. The drag compression shows it.

ProCap: Debt fell from $235M to $99.6M while they continued share buybacks. That's the double move: reduce claims and reduce shares. CEBE loves that.

Strategy: Only 3.2% CEBE growth but 4.4 points of drag compression. Cash went from $54M to $2.25B, passively reducing net claims in BTC terms. The drag compression tells you the balance sheet got healthier even though CEBE growth was modest relative to the peer set.

Now the other three:

Strive: CEBE barely moved (-0.9%), but the balance sheet changed fundamentally. Strive went from zero drag (pure common equity, no senior claims) to 30.7% drag after introducing preferred stock. That's not degradation in the traditional sense; it's the cost of building a capital structure from scratch. The question is whether the BTC acquired with that preferred issuance outpaces the new claims over time.

Smarter Web: CEBE fell 9.3%, drag edged up 0.7 points. Share dilution outpaced BTC accumulation. When you issue shares faster than you acquire Bitcoin, every existing share claims fewer sats. The drag increase is modest, but the CEBE erosion tells the story.

Nakamoto: CEBE collapsed 30.5% (the worst in the peer set). Drag crept up 3.4 points. The combination of heavy share dilution without proportional BTC accumulation is the textbook CEBE degradation pattern. More shares chasing the same Bitcoin reserve means less sats per share.

What This Means

The equity market doesn't price capital structure directly. Most investors look at Bitcoin price and think: if BTC goes up, these companies go up. That works in the long run. But in the medium term, capital structure matters more than you'd think.

Leverage amplifies both ways. These companies are all leveraged to Bitcoin in different ways through their balance sheets. When the market believes in Bitcoin, the leverage works in your favor. When the market loses faith, the leverage works against you. That's the drag.

The five companies that strengthened their capital structure over nine months are positioned to outperform if Bitcoin holds or rises from here. The three that degraded are fighting headwinds.

CEBE doesn't tell you which stocks to buy. But it does tell you which companies are building stronger balance sheets and which are eroding them. Use that information wisely.