The Market Already Knows

FD BPS reports what the company holds.
Not what common shareholders own.

Here are the receipts.

Each chart shows four metrics per company. FD BPS is the staircase. CEBE is what common shareholders actually own. Stock Implied tracks CEBE, not FD BPS. Basic BPS shows the overstatement nobody defends.

BTC ... Data ...

Chart data as of ..., updated weekly. For live metrics, see the Tracker →

The Proof

THE LINE THE MARKET RESPECTS

Four metrics per company. One pattern across all of them. The stock gravitates toward CEBE, whether from above or below.

January 2026: The Convergence
Position Ratio ?
0.08
Stock Implied
171,922 sats
CEBE
166,702 sats
FD BPS
228,743 sats

FD BPS sat 34% above where the stock traded. The market ignored it and converged on CEBE. The premium drained to near zero and the stock landed exactly where the framework said it would.

Current Position ?
--
Senior Claims %
--
Preferred Outstanding
--
CEBE mNAV
--
vs Basic BPS ?
--
Low drag company. FD BPS and CEBE are nearly identical. Position Ratio is less meaningful here.
How It Works

FOUR LINES, EXPLAINED

Each line answers a different question about what you own.

Basic BPS
The Overstatement
Basic BPS divides total Bitcoin by basic shares outstanding. No dilution. No claims. Nobody publishes this number and nobody defends it. But when someone says the stock trades at 0.82x the Bitcoin value, they are using this math. Total Bitcoin divided by market cap. No preferred subtracted. No converts counted. It is the ceiling that no common shareholder has ever actually reached.
FD BPS
The Staircase
FD BPS is Bitcoin divided by diluted shares. It does not depend on Bitcoin's price. It only changes when a filing updates the numbers. Between filings it is a flat line. Frozen. The industry reports this number as if it tells you what you own. It does not. It ignores every dollar of debt and preferred equity that sits senior to common shareholders.
CEBE
The Breathing Curve
CEBE subtracts senior claims before dividing by common shares. Those claims are denominated in fiat, so they shrink in Bitcoin terms when Bitcoin rises and expand when Bitcoin falls. CEBE moves with the market. It responds to the same forces the stock price responds to. That is why they track each other. FD BPS cannot do this because it pretends senior claims do not exist.
Stock Implied
The Gravity Line
When mNAV compresses and the premium drains out, the stock has to land somewhere. In January 2026, Strategy sat at 0.08 on the Position Ratio. Near zero. Near CEBE. FD BPS was 34% above where the stock traded and the market ignored it entirely. The charts on this page show the same pattern across every company that carries senior claims.
Current Snapshot

THE DATA

Latest week, all companies. Sorted by drag descending. Highest drag is where the gap between FD BPS and CEBE is widest.

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