# PRE-REGISTRATION, PREFERRED ERA STUDY, Q4 2026 WINDOW

Ruled by Bobby Tierney 2026-10-01 10:48 CT: thresholds C1 to C3 as stated; minimum event count 4 for C2 and C3; pre-window weeks shown and not scored; anticipated issuers named with the entry rule. Seal before the first Q4 week closes 2026-10-04. The sha256 of this file as sealed is posted on /evidence/ and in a post the same day. Any edit after the seal is a new study.

## Registration text

### Claim
In a Bitcoin treasury company carrying perpetual preferred stock, the normalized gap between common equity bitcoin exposure (CEBE) and gross bitcoin per share moves with changes in preferred face. Weeks in which preferred face changes materially are event weeks. Weeks in which it does not are non-event weeks.

### Event definition (symmetric)
An event week is any week in which the issuer's total preferred liquidation preference changes, up or down, by more than 0.5% of the standing face at the prior week's close, as stated in a primary filing or exchange regulatory announcement. Issuance, redemption and repurchase all qualify. Marking to market never qualifies; face is contractual.

### Series
One series per issuer. Series are evaluated separately and never pooled.
- MSTR (Strategy): continues from the Q3 series end (week 128, ending 2026-09-27).
- ASST (Strive, SATA): opens at the first week SATA existed at face. Weeks before the window are shown and not scored.
- Anticipated: TSWCF (Smarter Web, MORE, expected Admission 2026-10-14); SUPA, to be SLE (preferred instrument to be named, expected by year end). A series opens the week the instrument first appears in a primary filing or exchange regulatory announcement at liquidation preference. Listing an issuer here creates no series and no obligation until that filing exists.

### Window
Weeks ending 2026-10-04 through 2026-12-27 inclusive (13 weeks). Terminal figures struck at the 2026-12-31 CoinGecko D+1 close. Evaluation on the first business day after that close is available.

### Measures, per series
- Non-event mean: mean change in normalized gap over non-event weeks, in sats per share.
- Event mean: same over event weeks.
- Signed agreement: share of event weeks in which the sign of the gap change matches the sign of the face change (issuance positive, reduction negative).
- Pearson r between face change in BTC terms and gap change, over event weeks.
- Share of non-event weeks negative.

### Pre-registered conditions, per series
- C1. Non-event mean below zero.
- C2. Pearson r at or above 0.85 over event weeks, scored only if the series has at least 4 event weeks in the window; otherwise reported as insufficient events and not scored.
- C3. Signed agreement at or above 75% of event weeks, same minimum.
A series holds if every scorable condition holds. A series with no event weeks in the window is scored on C1 only and reported as such.

### Data
- Canonical CSV served at the /evidence/ data link, basis A as restated 2026-10-01, extended weekly.
- Preferred face from 8-K, 10-Q, 10-K, RNS or equivalent at liquidation preference. Non-USD face converted at the D+1 rate the tracker uses, stated per row.
- Weekly price: the week's average transaction price per the issuer's filing, sales included; absent a filed price, the CoinGecko D+1 close for the week end.
- Basic shares only. Converts are claims at face.

### Reporting
Result posts either way at evaluation. Held: the figures and the link. Not held: the figures, the link, and the sentence that the claim was pre-registered and missed. Every figure recomputable from the CSV.

### Lineage
Supersedes the April 2026 registration (Q2 and Q3 windows, both held as registered; Q2 restated on basis A 2026-10-01, verdict unchanged). The April definition counted debuts and expansions only; repurchase weeks were non-event under it and are reported both ways in the Q3 result. This registration makes the definition symmetric.

Sealed: [date, time CT]. sha256: [hash].