Insights / Drag Engine framework / Engine State

Engine State

As Bitcoin rises, senior claims shrink in BTC terms. The sats transfer back to common equity. This page measures how fast.

Engine State tracks the operational condition of each Bitcoin Treasury Company's (BTCTC) drag engine: not just where they are, but which direction they're heading and how fast. Built on the Drag Engine framework. Numbers trace to SEC, LSE, and EDINET filings.

Tiers measure data maturity, not company quality. A Tier 1 company has enough history to anchor a valuation. A Tier 3 company may be performing just as well. We just haven't tracked it long enough to say so with confidence.

Tier 1 Anchor Ready 6+ quarters of verified history. Yield stable within +/-10% across 3 trailing quarters. No base distortion. Supports P/E-comparable analysis.
Tier 2 Trajectory Visible 4+ quarters tracked. Positive CEBE sats slope across 3 periods. Direction is readable. Annualized yield not yet stable enough for valuation anchoring.
Tier 3 Accumulating History Fewer than 4 quarters tracked, or slope not yet established. Engine direction cannot be stated with confidence. Monitoring for graduation.

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Methodology

Tier assignments and engine state labels are computed automatically from Snapshots data. No manual overrides, no thumbs on the scale. Tier measures data maturity; Engine State measures current direction. These are independent: a Tier 1 company can carry a Decaying engine state and remain Tier 1 as long as its history criteria still hold. Yield stability requires 3 consecutive quarters within +/-10% of the trailing 3-quarter mean, all positive, with 6+ quarters tracked. Base distortion flags companies whose earliest recorded CEBE sats/share was below 1,000, a sign the annualized yield figure is not stable for valuation anchoring. All data traces to SEC, LSE, and EDINET filings. See the Drag Engine framework for full methodology.