CEBE Modeler: Forward Simulation Engine

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CEBE (Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure) The sats of BTC each common share actually owns, after all senior claims are paid.
Share Price = CEBE × BTC Price × mNAV
New to CEBE? Start with Strategy →
Pick a company. Model its share price through CEBE.
Each modeler calculates share price as CEBE × BTC Price × mNAV, with capital structure, scenarios, and 10-year projections tuned to each company's actual claims stack.
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Modeler Tiers ▼
TIER 1Full engine. Capital plan, convert maturities, dividend cascade, 10Y projections.
TIER 2FX + bond structure. Foreign currency claims, zero-coupon dynamics, dual sensitivity.
PREFERREDSenior claims from preferred stock. Simplified stack, break-even analysis.
0% DRAGPure equity. CEBE = BPS. Cleanest Bitcoin exposure story. (none currently tracked)
CLNConvertible Loan Note. GBP/EUR-denominated, maturity modeling.
CONVERTDynamic convertibles. OCA/tranche structure with BTC-indexed drag that changes through discrete conversion events, not BTC price.
CONVERTSZero-coupon convertible notes. Simple debt, deleveraging trajectory.
LIQUIDATION RISKCollateral-backed debt. Forced liquidation floor, maintenance ratio monitoring.
Cross-Company Tools
📈
Drag Curves
All 9 companies on one chart. See who compresses fastest as BTC rises.
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CEBE mNAV
Standard vs CEBE mNAV for all companies. The drag penalty priced by the market.
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⚡
Power Law
Share prices at $770K, $2.15M, $4.5M BTC across all companies. mNAV slider.
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🔬
The Decision Lab
Transaction payoff curves. See exactly where a capital raise shifts from dilutive to accretive for common shareholders.
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🎯
The Allocator
Portfolio return curves. Weight allocations across all companies and see how capital structure drives returns at every BTC price.
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📊 All Companies: Live CEBE Snapshot ▼
Company BTC Held CEBE BPS Drag Equity% Break-Even
How It Works
⚡NOW view: What if BTC were at this price today? Point-in-time snapshots at crash, current, and bull prices.
📈FORWARD view: 10-year projections with halving cycle model, capital plan assumptions, environment modifiers.
🎯Custom Simulation: Full control. BTC price path, mNAV, ATM pace, dividends, FX, regulatory environment.
CEBE Framework by @chcbearsfan · Read the Framework · CEBE vs BPS
Not financial advice · Data updates after each filing

CEBE Forward Simulation Engine

The CEBE Modeler projects how a Bitcoin treasury company's key metrics evolve under different Bitcoin price paths and capital structure scenarios. Unlike static snapshot tools, the Modeler lets you test assumptions about halving cycles, convertible note maturities, warrant exercises, share issuance, and Bitcoin acquisition pace.

What You Can Model

Drag Compression: See how rising Bitcoin prices reduce the fiat-denominated cost of senior claims relative to BTC value, compressing drag over time. BTC-indexed claims do not compress.