Modeler

The Decision Lab

Pick a company and one filed capital markets print from the deal ledger, or type a print of your own, and the arithmetic prints: coins bought, sats per new share delivered against the standing CEBE per basic share, CEBE mNAV at the print, and Senior Claims % before and after.

This is the issuance tape reduced to one row, with the working shown. The version this replaces rendered a verdict on each print. This one prints the arithmetic and the basis each figure was struck on, and lets the reader see it.

The print

Loading the deal ledger...

What each figure was struck on

How the test works

Sats per new share delivered

A print that issues shares hands the treasury something in exchange for them. Divide what arrived by the shares that were printed and the result is in the same unit as CEBE itself, sats per share, so the two can sit side by side. Where the filing reports the coins the raise bought, those coins are the numerator and no currency enters the calculation. Where it does not, the numerator is net proceeds over the Bitcoin price on the same row, which stand in the same currency as each other.

The comparison against standing CEBE is arithmetic against a number the company already had. It is not a judgment about the print, and the page says so beside every one it draws.

A claim is tested differently

A preferred issue delivers proceeds and adds a claim that sits ahead of the common at its liquidation preference. Both sides convert to Bitcoin, and the ratio between them prints with the annual carry beside it. No flag stands on that ratio, because the accretion test for a claim is the Wrapper test rather than the per share one.

Why a funding group is one print

An ATM raise and the purchase it funded are separate rows that share a funding group. The raise carries the shares and the face; the purchase carries the coins and, for issuers that do not report in dollars, the only Bitcoin price anywhere in the group. Three rows in the whole ledger carry both net proceeds and a Bitcoin price on the same line, so reading the legs apart would leave almost every print with no price at all and would score a raise as though nothing had been bought with it.

What a purchase from cash does

Cash held is an offset against senior claims, so spending it raises net claims by exactly what it removes from the bank. A purchase funded from cash on hand therefore lifts the treasury and the claim stack by the same number of coins and leaves the residual per share where it was. The page prints that result rather than hiding it, because it is the clearest statement of what the framework measures.

What is not shown

Nothing on this page is a projection. The after state is the print applied to the balance sheet that preceded it, at the price that balance sheet was filed against, and it is not a forecast of what the next filing will say. Cash left undeployed inside a funding group is not measured. Secondary trading in any instrument is not visible here at all.

Every figure on this page derives at render time from a row in the deals tab, the snapshot that governs its date, and the instruments tab for a coupon. No computed figure is stored anywhere, so the page recomputes on load and a correction in the sheet reaches it on the next read. Senior claims come from the site’s shared claims formula, the one the tracker, the modeler and the public feed all use.
Nothing entered on this page is stored, sent anywhere, or retained after the tab closes. An input that fails to load renders as unavailable, and a print whose disclosure is incomplete names what it is missing instead of showing a figure. Neither ever falls back to an estimate.
This page is measurement, not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

CEBE Framework by @chcbearsfan. cebetracker.io.