CEBE Modeler: Forward Simulation Engine

BTC Loading...
CEBE (Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure) The sats of BTC each common share actually owns, after all senior claims are paid.
Share Price = CEBE × BTC Price × mNAV
Pick a company. Model its share price through CEBE.
Each modeler calculates share price as CEBE × BTC Price × mNAV, with capital structure, scenarios, and 10-year projections tuned to each company's actual claims stack.
Modeler Tiers
TIER 1Full engine. Capital plan, convert maturities, dividend cascade, 10Y projections.
TIER 2FX + bond structure. Foreign currency claims, zero-coupon dynamics, dual sensitivity.
PREFERREDSenior claims from preferred stock. Simplified stack, break-even analysis.
0% DRAGPure equity. CEBE = BPS. Cleanest Bitcoin exposure story. (none currently tracked)
CLNConvertible Loan Note. GBP/EUR-denominated, maturity modeling.
CONVERTDynamic convertibles. OCA/tranche structure with BTC-indexed drag that changes through discrete conversion events, not BTC price.
CONVERTSZero-coupon convertible notes. Simple debt, deleveraging trajectory.
LIQUIDATION RISKCollateral-backed debt. Forced liquidation floor, maintenance ratio monitoring.
📊 All Companies — Live CEBE Snapshot
Company BTC Held CEBE BPS Drag Equity% Break-Even
How It Works
NOW view: What if BTC were at this price today? Point-in-time snapshots at crash, current, and bull prices.
📈FORWARD view: 10-year projections with halving cycle model, capital plan assumptions, environment modifiers.
🎯Custom Simulation: Full control. BTC price path, mNAV, ATM pace, dividends, FX, regulatory environment.

CEBE Forward Simulation Engine

The CEBE Modeler projects how a Bitcoin treasury company's key metrics evolve under different Bitcoin price paths and capital structure scenarios. Unlike static snapshot tools, the Modeler lets you test assumptions about halving cycles, convertible note maturities, warrant exercises, share issuance, and Bitcoin acquisition pace.

What You Can Model

Drag Compression: See how rising Bitcoin prices reduce the fiat-denominated cost of senior claims relative to total BTC holdings. The Modeler shows exactly when and how drag compresses for each company.

mNAV Trajectories: Project the multiple-to-net-asset-value across halving cycles. Understand whether a company is trading at a premium or discount to its net Bitcoin position and how that evolves.

Capital Structure Impact: Model the effect of convertible note conversions, preferred equity redemptions, and warrant exercises on CEBE per share. Every instrument flows through the full dilution stack.

Break-Even Analysis: Find the Bitcoin price where CEBE equals the implied BTC per share at the current stock price. Below break-even, the market is pricing shares above their net Bitcoin value.

Supported Companies

The Modeler covers the major Bitcoin treasury companies including Strategy (MSTR), Metaplanet (MTPLF), Strive Asset Management (ASST), The Smarter Web Company (TSWCF), and others. Each company model is built from SEC and LSE filings