Every Bitcoin Treasury Company transaction is a bet whose payoff depends on where BTC ends up.
Pick a deal. Drag the handles. Watch the curves cross. The break-even price tells you where shareholders win.
The gray line is current CEBE (sats per share after all senior claims). The orange line is CEBE after the deal.
Where orange is above gray, shareholders gain. Where it’s below, they lose.
The Verdict
—
Select a transaction to begin.
Δ at spot —
Path —
Without dealCurrent CEBE curve: no transaction applied
With dealCEBE after this transaction at each BTC price
BREAK-EVEN: BTC price where curves cross. Above this, shareholders win.
BTC Bought ⊚+0
0 BTC
How much Bitcoin the company acquires in this transaction. In an 8-K, look for “acquired approximately X bitcoin” or calculate from the aggregate purchase price divided by the average acquisition price.
Shares Issued ⊚+0
0
New common shares issued to fund the transaction. In an 8-K, look for “sold an aggregate of X shares” under the ATM program. More shares = more dilution to existing holders.
Claims Added ⊚+0
$0
New senior obligations (debt or preferred stock) added to the capital structure. Select the currency the claim is denominated in: this determines whether drag compresses as BTC rises (fiat claims) or stays fixed (BTC-denominated claims).
DEAL TIMELINE: Watch the transaction load onto the balance sheet
Deal Day—
Today—
STARTStarting state. No deal applied. Orange curve matches gray baseline.
Stacked Transactions
Lock in a deal, then add another to see their combined effect. Use this to model a full quarter: the ATM, the preferred issuance, and the convert, all on one chart.
Configure a deal above, then press + Stack to lock it in.
How to read the chart: Gray = CEBE without the deal. Orange = CEBE with the deal. Where orange is above gray, the deal adds value for common shareholders. Where it’s below, the deal costs them.
Live BTC price from CoinGecko. Company state from primary filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, RNS, tanshin) via the
CEBE Tracker data sheet. Curves model fiat-denominated senior claims compressing in BTC terms as price rises;
BTC-denominated claims hold static drag. FX held flat at spot for v1; the time-sweep linearly interpolates state between deal day and today.
This is a decision-shape visualizer, not investment advice.
Framework by @chcbearsfan.