The Accretion Threshold
Issuing equity above net asset value is the usual test. Once a senior stack sits ahead of common, the line that matters is lower, and it moves.
This page plots the threshold for Strategy (MSTR) across every snapshot on record. The line is computed from filed balance sheet figures, each snapshot valued at its own BTC price. Built on the Drag Engine framework.
Gross mNAV measures market capitalisation against the whole treasury. CEBE mNAV measures it against the Bitcoin left after senior claims. The two differ by exactly one factor, the share of the treasury that common equity still owns, so CEBE mNAV = gross mNAV / (1 − Claims %). Setting that above 1.0 and rearranging gives the threshold in gross units.
Repurchase is the mirror of issuance. Buying stock back below the same line adds CEBE per share, and buying it back above the line subtracts. One line governs both directions.
The threshold walks down as the senior stack grows. Every dollar of debt or preferred raised ahead of common lowers the bar that new equity has to clear, and lowers what a repurchase has to stay under.
Gross mNAV units. Each point is one snapshot, computed from that snapshot's own filed figures and its own recorded BTC price.
The threshold series is 1 / Amplification(t), which equals
(gross BTC minus net senior claims in BTC) divided by gross BTC. Claims % comes from the
shared computeDrag formula that every surface on this site uses, and each
snapshot is passed its own recorded BTC price rather than the live price, so a point reflects the
balance sheet and the market as they stood on that date.
Net senior claims are debt plus preferred at accrued liquidation preference, less cash, converted to BTC at the snapshot price, with the zero floor applied to the total rather than to each bucket. Snapshots without a recorded BTC price cannot be placed on the series and are excluded, with the count noted under the chart. Every figure loads live from the Snapshots tab. Nothing on this page is hardcoded.
Gross mNAV here means market capitalisation over gross treasury value. Read the construction in full on the methodology page, and the claims formula in the Drag Engine framework.